Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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Bindung: Taschenbuch
EAN: 9780141032740
Ausgabe: Open Market Ed
ISBN: 014103274X
Label: Penguin
Hersteller: Penguin
Anzahl Seiten: 368
Erscheinungsdatum: März 29, 2007
Herausgeber: Penguin
Studio: Penguin
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Durchschnittliche Bewertung:
Bewertung:
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This book is one of the most important books ever written! Although it may seem far fetched I think that this is true for several reasons.
One of the most important reasons is its main point : We all being fooled by randomness. This is especially true for areas of our lifes that we normally would not expect randomness to manifest itself in. It is a deeply inspiring book and has the ability to change the way the reader percepts the world around him, or the things that happen around him.
Having read his sescond book "Black Swan" I must say that I find "Fooled by Randomness" a far better read. It is concise and written in beautiful English. I just makes the point very clear and this is by no means easy if one looks at the topic. This is one of the books that had to be written and is a must read for every "thinking man" out there.
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Every person who is interested in investing should read this book!
In investing, few can tell the difference between being lucky and smart. Being successful in the short term can come from either source. If it is coming from unrecognized sources of luck, however, the behavior that the investor associates with success can sink the ship. The cautionary tale of Long Term Capital Management is cited in the book as an example of this point. "If you're so rich, why aren't you smart?" is the wonderful reversal here on the old saw.
I see this effect all the time in my consulting practice with helping companies understand how their decisions affect their stock price. A large percentage of people feel that they know all the answers when their stock price is rising. They keep doing the same things when the stocks are falling. Few survive to still have top jobs when the cycle shifts again. Then a new group of self-confident people take over who often don't know any more than ...
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