The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

In Partnerschaft mit Amazon.de

Alle ProdukteBücherDVDElektronikEngl. BücherGarten & FreizeitHaus & GartenHeimwerkenKörperpflege & BadKüche & HaushaltKamera & FotoMusikMusik (Klassische)Musik TracksPC HardwareSoftwareSoftware & Video-SpieleSpielwarenSportsVideoVideo (DVD & VHS)Video-SpieleZeitschriften

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,

von: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Bindung: Taschenbuch
EAN: 9780141034591
Ausgabe: Trade Paperback.
ISBN: 0141034599
Label: Penguin
Hersteller: Penguin
Anzahl Seiten: 400
Erscheinungsdatum: Februar 28, 2008
Herausgeber: Penguin
Studio: Penguin

---

ähnliche Produkte:

• Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
• The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: : The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means
• Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
• Der schwarze Schwan. Die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse
• The Wisdom of Crowds
• mehr

Browse for similar items by category: Click to Display

---

Produktbeschreibung:

Amazon.com:
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.

---

Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson

---

Bewertung: - Überflüssig
Überflüssig. Ärgerlich. Ein arg gehyptes Buch, das nur einen Zweck kennt: die Eitelkeit seines Verfassers zu bedienen.
Langweilend und sich ständig wiederholend, verkauft Mr.Taleb Altbekanntes und hat dabei offensichtlich noch nicht einmal seine Quellen ordentlich gelesen.
Ich muss mich der Meinung meines vorangehenden Rezensenten anschliessen:

Verschwenden Sie keine Zeit. Lesen Sie lieber eine anständiges Buch

---

Bewertung: - Challenging but revolutionary ideas
Reading this book is quite challenging since it is rather a philosophical discussion than an analysis of current business. The english used is not too complicated to understand, far from it - it's beautiful, but for speed reading it is. For me, discussions are too long, too many names dropped (could go in appendices) - I'm interested in the revolutionary thoughts which are quite remarkable. Ok, maybe not revolutionary in every sense, but still remarkable. I've written down a few thoughts and marked a few pages.
To be honest, I'm still in the last chapters. I've read a few books in between now and then. But again and again I picked it up. It's quite long and you don't just cut through it.

---

Bewertung: - Interessanter Anfang und dann viel Polemik
Eigentlich beginnt das Buch relativ interessant. Es erklärt die Grundidee der Theorie, dass Menschen nicht besonders gut darin sind bestimmte Ereignisse zu berücksichtigen (z.B. sehr unwahrscheinliche Ereignisse bzw. sehr extreme Ereignisse).
Auch zu Beginn kritisiert Taleb, ganze Wissenschaftszweige dies zu spät oder nicht ausreichend in Ihrer Forschung berücksichtigen. Vor allem Betriebswirtschaft und Volkswirtschaft sind seiner Meinung nach gar keine richtigen Wissenschaften. Am Anfang des Buches wird die Kritik noch mit Studienergebnissen belegt. Später werden sie einfach so hingestellt.
Ab der Mitte des Buch kann man aber mit dem Lesen aufhören. Die grundsätzliche Idee hat man verstanden wird aber gebetsmühlenartig wiederholt. Außerdem kritisiert er ab da nicht mehr die Argumente und Ideen, sondern zieht über einzelne Personen oder Institutionen her. So etwas fände ich in einer Kolumne oder einen vergleichen Rahmen angemessen. Allerdings habe ich in einem Buch ... weiter

---

Bewertung: - Das Paris Hilton Prinzip
Eine Folgeerscheinung der modernen Medienlandschaft sind Paris Hilton Berühmtheiten. Eine hohe Dosis Narzismus und ein Talent zur Selbstdarstellung sind die einzig nennenswerten Eigenschaften. Der Autor wird in hymnischen Kritiken als Übergenie gefeiert. Er ist bestenfalls ein Paris Hilton Genie (PHG). Er macht aus seiner Methode auch kein Hehl:
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don't have the courage to sometimes say: I don't know.... (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race)".
Er präsentiert dem Leser eine Karikatur eines bekannten Denkers bzw. einer anerkannten Theorie und zieht sie dann mit "schauts her, wie bin ich doch gescheit" durch den Kakao. Wobei er davon ausgeht, dass der Leser bestenfalls eine sehr oberflächliche Ahnung vom Thema hat. Z.B. wird Plato als Sinnbild eines öden und ... weiter

---

Bewertung: - Enjoyable explanation of why (nearly) all mathematical models of financial markets are wrong
As a PhD student in Economics interested in financial markets I have read NN Taleb's book (The Black Swan), then Riccardo Rebonato's (Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently, 2007) and Benoit Mandelbrot's ((Mis)behaviour of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward, 2005). All books contain the same message: the assumptions underlying modern risk management models are wrong (and yes, this has something to do with the financial crisis). All books are worth reading, but if you know one, you know the others. Which leaves you with the question of which book to read.

Here is my recommendation: For economists and people with a mathematical background, I would suggest Mandelbrot. The story is very nice, and his explanations original. He was the first to suggest that stock prices resemble fractals, and not random walks. Since he had a co-author, the book is a good read, given some prior knowledge. For those without some intermediate knowledge ... weiter

---